Petrol Fiyatları 9 Ekim'de Düşüş Gösterdi: Brent 103$, WTI 90,5$

Kısaca

Brent 103$, WTI 90,5$ seviyelerine indi; önceki kapanışlar 104,28$ ve 91,49$ olarak gerçekleşti Trump'ın İran konusundaki söylemleri ve Hürmuz Boğazı'ndaki operasyon ihtimali etkisi azalttı piyasa/iş dünyası: enerji maliyetleri, enflasyon riski, rafineri karları ve uluslararası ticaret hareketleri izlenecek

Ana mesele

Petrol fiyatları 9 Ekim'de düşüş gösterdi

Ne değişti?

Brent 103$, WTI 90,5$ seviyelerine indi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji maliyetleri ve rafineri marjları üzerinde baskı oluşabilir

Ne oldu?

Brent 103$, WTI 90,5$ olarak kapandı; önceki seansta Brent 104,28$, WTI 91,49$ idi

Neden şimdi?

Trump'ın İran konusunda askeri müdahale ihtimalinin zayıfladığına dair mesajlar, enerji arzı endişelerini azaltmış gibi görünüyor

Neden önemli?

Enerji maliyetleri ve küresel tedarik zincirleri üzerinde etkili olabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Üreticiler ve rafineriler
• Enerji sektörü yatırımcıları
• Tüketici fiyatlarına etkisi olasıdır

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji ve finans piyasalarında volatilite azaldı/olası toparlanma sinyalleri

Riskler

• Satış baskısı devam edebilir
• Tedarik zincirinde bölgesel kesintiler riski
• Jeopolitik gerilimler yeniden artabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Brent ve WTI hareketleri 1-2 gün içinde yön değiştirir mi
• Hürmuz Boğazı'ndaki güvenlik gelişmeleri
• ABD-İran ilişkileri ve enerji altyapısı riskleri

Haberin tamamı

Crude oil prices slipped after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, easing fears of supply concerns and attacks on energy infrastructure.In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said the US was holding productive discussions with Iran and maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remained under US control.

He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon and claimed that oil shipments through the strategic waterway were flowing at record volumes.Crude oil price on October 9Brent crude fell 1% to $103, while West Tax Intermediate was down 0.75% to $90.5. In the previous session, Brent crude futures settled $4.08, or 4.1%, higher at $104.28 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $3.21, or 3.6%, to close at $91.49.

Both contracts rose more than $5 a barrel at one point, with Brent hitting its highest level since September 29.In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said the US was holding productive discussions with Iran and maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remained under US control.

He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon and claimed that oil shipments through the strategic waterway were flowing at record volumes.Trump's remarks came after a rise in attacks on oil and commercial tankers in the crucial shipping route.

According to the UK Maritime Organization, at least nine attacks were reported in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf during the first seven days of October, already accounting for 50% of the total attacks recorded in September.Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the US had prepared plans for a three-day military operation against Iran, targeting drone and missile arsenals, energy facilities and other sites.

Oil prices also remained supported by the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, along with a sharp rise in tanker freight rates.Iran's Fars news agency reported that several heavy explosions took place in the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday after oil tankers attempting to cross the waterway's southern route were struck by mines.

The report cited unidentified sources from Iran's military, and there was no independent confirmation of the incident.Traders were also monitoring Hurricane Isaias, which is expected to make landfall along the US Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle are among the areas at risk. The storm has put about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil supply, representing more than 60% of the region's output, out of bounds.Where are prices headed?

We simply don't know how to model the endgame, JPMorgan analysts said, highlighting the uncertainty over how the conflict could develop. When the conflict began, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds the US administration would not cross. Six months into the war, JPMorgan said many of those thresholds had been crossed, while there was still no clear exit strategy.The risk of further supply disruptions has also increased the possibility of higher oil prices.

Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had shown that disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe.Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. If exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.Struyven told Bloomberg that risks to shipping had become a key driver of oil prices.

Goldman Sachs sees meaningful upside to crude oil prices and also expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise. Struyven said supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Veer Sharma and his ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets