Petrol fiyatları yükselişini sürdürdü: İran saldırıları tedarik endişelerini güçlendiriyor

Kısaca

Brent 104 doların üzerine çıktı ve günlük bazda 4,1 puanlık artış kaydedildi; İran tanker saldırılarının tekrarı tedarik endişelerini güçlendirdi Güçlenen maliyet baskısı ve jeopolitik riskler dünyada enflasyon kaygısını canlı tutuyor; yatırımcılar riskten kaçış ve faiz artışını fiyatlıyor Geri kalan yolda politikacılar arası gelişmeler ve ABD-İran görüşmeleri piyasaların yönünü belirleyecek

Ana mesele

Küresel petrol akışında İran saldırılarının artışı fiyatları baskılıyor

Ne değişti?

İran saldırılarının etkisiyle petrol fiyatlarında yükseliş sürüyor; olası ABD-İran anlaşmasıyla sınırlı gevşeme potansiyeli konuşuluyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji maliyetleri küresel enflasyonu destekleyebilir; yatırımcılar varlık satışı ve faiz beklentilerini etkileyebilir

Ne oldu?

İran kaynaklı tanker saldırıları Middle East'teki akışı tehdit etti; Brent 4,1% artışla 104 doların üzerine çıktı

Neden şimdi?

Yılın ilk Atlantic kasırgası nedeniyle ABD Körfezi’nde üretim kısıntıları da fiyatları destekledi

Neden önemli?

Enflasyon endişeleri güçlenebilir ve merkez bankaları politikasını sıkılaştırabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Tüketiciler (yakıt maliyetleri yükselir)
• Enerji şirketleri (karlılık ve yatırım planları etkilenir)
• Hisse senedi ve borç piyasaları (risk iştahı düşebilir)

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji hisseleri ve petrol türevlerinde volatilite artabilir

Riskler

• Jeopolitik gerilimlerin uzaması
• WTI-Brent farklarının büyümesi
• Kısmi tedarik kesintileri

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD-İran görüşmeleri
• Küresel petrol arz-talep dengesi
• Kısa vadeli üretim kısıntıları ve stoklar

Haberin tamamı

<p>Oil surged by the most in a month as fresh tanker attacks by Iran threaten to curtail a recent uptick in flows from the Middle East, adding to worries over rising inflation around the world.<br /> <br /> Brent climbed 4.1% to settle above $104 a barrel, the highest since September. While shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have risen in recent weeks, the pace of Iranian strikes on ships in the waterway has increased.

Crude futures have also been bolstered by production cuts because of the first Atlantic hurricane of the year in the US Gulf, while soaring freight rates are adding to the real-world prices for consumers.<br /> <br /> European natural gas futures slid on the news, erasing earlier gains by easing traders' fears around a prolonged disruption to liquefied natural gas carriers moving through Hormuz.<br /> <br /> Refined fuel prices have surged even more than crude as global refinery capacity remains hobbled by both the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

That's reinforcing expectations that central banks will keep raising interest rates to contain inflation, with a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike fully priced in for December. The recent rise in oil prices has also prompted a fresh round of selling in bonds and stocks.<br /> <br /> "With depleted inventories supporting the case for sustained replenishment demand, the long-term direction of oil prices will remain tilted to the upside," said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.com.

"In the short-term, it would take some positive developments towards a potential US-Iran deal to bring some relief."<br /> <br /> Futures eased off of intraday highs after US President Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran again before the Nov. 3 midterm election.

That allayed some fears stoked by a Wednesday Atlantic report saying the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options for before the polls next month.<br /> <br /> Crude has rallied more than 70% this year with the Iran war, launched by the US and Israel in February, curtailing exports and damaged infrastructure, as well as draining inventories.

However, fewer refined products are exiting Hormuz than crude, as the world starts to run short of stopgaps such as strategic reserves to manage the crisis ahead of winter.<br /> <br /> At the same time, it's getting even more expensive to transport supplies. Shipping oil from the Middle East to China cost $1.4 million a day on Wednesday, the most on record, and other earnings are soaring across the globe.

At least one very large crude carrier was offered this week to sail from the US Gulf to Japan at a potential record fee of $82 million, or more than $40 a barrel. That's a 50%-plus increase on the route from just three weeks ago.<br /> <br /> That's having a knock-on effect on crude markets.

In West Africa, barrels that often sail thousands of miles to Asia are trading at steep discounts, while the Dated Brent benchmark in Europe is near $130 a barrel as European refiners clamor for the most local supplies they can find.<br /> <br /> Meanwhile, nearly 500,000 barrels a day of oil-refining capacity sit in the projected path of Hurricane Isaias, which is strengthening in the US Gulf and expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

The storm has already prompted offshore producers to shut in more than 60% of crude output.

Fuel markets are even more vulnerable to potential price spikes amid limited US inventories for gasoline and diesel.<br /> <br /> <strong>Recent Attacks</strong><br /> <br /> While energy flows from the Middle East have reached near pre-war levels in the last few weeks, there's also been a surge in attacks on vessels.<br /> <br /> Recent incidents included a strike against a tanker off Qatar, with casualties reported, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations.

The vessel was hit north of Madinat ash Shamal, at the emirate's tip, in the first reported attack on a ship deep within the Persian Gulf in about a month.<br /> <br /> "Flows from the Middle East have recovered, but constrained product supplies, extreme logistics costs and a high risk of Iranian escalation are keeping prices elevated," said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee.<br /> <br /> Elsewhere, Iran-backed Houthis struck two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing three people as the group intensifies its attacks on the kingdom while also fighting Riyadh-backed forces in Yemen.

In retaliation, the Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed 82 targets belonging to the Houthis in Yemen.<br /> <br /> <strong><u>Oil Prices</u></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>WTI for November delivery rose 3.6% to settle at $91.49 a barrel in New York.</strong></li> <li><strong>Brent for December settlement gained 4.1% to settle at $104.28 a barrel.</strong><br /> </li> </ul>

Kaynaklar

• Rigzone