Petrol Fiyatlarında Düşüş Stratejisi: Rusya-Ukrayna Gerilimi ve Enerji Tedarik Endişeleri

Kısaca

Brent petrol 103,35 dolar/varil civarında seyretti, günlük düşüş kaydedildi. Rusya-Ukrayna gerilimi pekişirken enerji tedarik kaygıları arttı. Küresel piyasalar enerji maliyetlerindeki belirsizliğe odaklandığı için takip edilecek noktalar.

Ana mesele

Enerji arzı endişeleri ve jeopolitik gerilimler petrol fiyatlarını etkiliyor, belirsizlik sürüyor.

Ne değişti?

Brent vadeli işlem fiyatları düşerken, Rusya-Ukrayna konusundaki taraflararası iletişim belirsizliğini koruyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucu enerji maliyetleri ve petrol trendleri konusunda yönlendirilir.

Ne oldu?

Petrol fiyatları düşüş kaydederken arz endişeleri gündemde.

Neden şimdi?

Orta Doğu ve enerji nakil hatlarındaki riskler, fiyat hareketlerini yönlendiriyor.

Neden önemli?

Fiyat değişimleri tüketici maliyetlerini etkileyebilir, şirketlerin maliyet yönetimini etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Tüketiciler
• Yatırımcılar
• Tedarik zinciri tarafları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji hisseleri ve ilgili enstrümanlarda volatilite artabilir

Riskler

• Enerji talebinde düşüş
• Jeopolitik risklerin uzaması
• Döviz-kredi maliyetlerinde artış

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Rusya-Ukrayna durumu
• Stratejik petrol rezervlerinin kullanımı
• Arz güvenliğiyle ilgili yeni gelişmeler
• Tedarik anlaşmalarındaki hareketler

Haberin tamamı

Oil prices fell on Monday as expectations of increased Russian supplies weighed on the market after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop attacks on each other’s energy facilities. The announcement followed a US deal with Moscow to supply diesel.Trump announced the energy ceasefire on Sunday, following Friday’s announcement of the diesel-supply deal with Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still awaiting details of the agreement, while Russia had not commented.Crude oil price on October 12Brent crude futures declined $1.42, or 1.36%, to $103.35 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.42, or 1.60%, to $90.42 a barrel.Read more: D-Street poised for positive start as GIFT Nifty signals gainsIran war tensions continueThe ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to support Brent crude above $100 a barrel.

Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for a strike on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.

Saudi authorities also reported injuries in another attack on the airport on Sunday.Trump said on Saturday that the United States was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis, as the conflict spreads from the wider war with Iran launched by the US and Israel in February.Attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also increased this month, threatening to undermine the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports recorded in September.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported over the weekend that a tanker was hit by a drone near the Sohar anchorage in Oman, while another vessel was damaged by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.Read more: Stocks in news: HCL Technologies, DMart, Adani Green Energy, PTC Industries and Anand Rathi WealthWhere are prices headed?Uncertainty over how the conflict will end remains a key concern for markets.

JPMorgan analysts said they did not know how to model the eventual outcome, noting that the bank had initially assumed the US administration would avoid crossing certain economic thresholds when the conflict began. Six months into the war, many of those thresholds had been crossed, while a clear exit strategy remained absent.The growing threat of further supply disruptions has also raised the prospect of higher oil prices.

Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks demonstrated how disruptions to shipping could spread and intensify. Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. If exports return to normal, the bank expects prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.Speaking to Bloomberg, Struyven said risks to shipping had become a major driver of oil prices.

Goldman Sachs sees meaningful upside potential for crude and expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise as well. Struyven added that supply shocks affecting gas and fuels were larger than those in the crude oil market.Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets