Pimco, Getiriler Yüksekse Çeşitlendirme Stratejisini Öne Çıkarıyor: Küresel Piyasalarda Savunma İçin Tavsiyeler

Kısaca

Pimco, yaklaşık 2,33 trilyon dolar yöneten varlık yönetimiyle getirilerin 24 yılın zirvesine çekildiğini belirtti ve gelişmiş ile gelişen piyasalarda dağılım önerdi. Gözlenen 10 yıllık Hazine getirisi yaklaşık yüzde 5,25, 30 yıllık yüzde 5,65 seviyesinde. Kurumsal borçlanmadaki ivme, yapay zeka yatırımlarının etkisiyle yükselen getirilerin portföy çeşitlendirmesiyle dengelenmesi gerektiğini vurguluyor.

Ana mesele

Getirilerin yüksek olduğu dönemde çeşitlendirmenin riski azaltmada ana savunma olduğuna vurgu yapılıyor

Ne değişti?

Uzun vadeli portföylerde küresel çeşitlendirme önerisi, ülke özel risklerinin azaltılmasına odaklanıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar için getiriler ve çeşitlendirme stratejileri konusunda karar desteği sunar

Ne oldu?

Pimco, getirilerin yüksek olması nedeniyle küresel portföy çeşitlendirmesini öne sürüyor.

Neden şimdi?

Yüksek getiriler ve enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle bu öneri güncel.

Neden önemli?

Yatırımcılar için riskleri dağıtma ve getiriyi koruma amacıyla uygulanabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yatırımcılar
• kurumsal yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Sabit getirili piyasalarda volatilite artabilir.

Riskler

• kurumsal borçlanma talebi ve jeopolitik riskler ile piyasa dalgalanmaları

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• portföy dağılımında değişim
• faiz kararları
• enflasyon eğilimleri

Haberin tamamı

Pacific Investment Management Co. says bond yields at multi-decade highs offer attractive income for investors, who should spread their allocations across developed and emerging markets to help protect against fiscal risks. The money manager, which oversees about $2.33 trillion, unveiled its latest 6- to 12-month cyclical outlook on Tuesday as long-dated Treasury yields hover around the highest since 2002.

The benchmark 10-year note yields about 5.25%, and the 30-year around 5.65%.Read more: How a 9-year-old Warren Buffett learnt a lesson on compounding by rolling snowballs on the lawn of his Nebraska homeBonds have been slumping since mid-August as the US economy expands amid booming AI infrastructure spending, while steep energy costs keep inflation elevated and sustain the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year.“Attractive starting yields — and the income they can offer — provide a meaningful mitigant against inflationary tail risks while preserving the potential for bonds to hedge a fading AI capex impulse or a shock to growth,” economist Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls, the firm’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, said in the report.

134753866Read more: Global Market Today: Asian stocks hold near record highs, oil climbsInvestors deploying “a global bond portfolio allocation across DM and EM can help diversify country-specific factors, including fiscal risks,” according to Pimco, which is based in Newport Beach, California.

The asset manager says the US and France “stand out with more challenging debt trajectories.” Meanwhile, the likes of “the UK, Italy and Japan remain vulnerable — and Japan increasingly so given recent policies that add to deficits — but their debt trajectories appear sustainable under current fiscal plans.”Additional fiscal stimulus looms as the main potential driver of higher yields and a steeper yield curve, and “the scale of corporate debt issuance tied to the AI buildout may be a contributing factor,” Pimco said.While “fiscal concerns will continue to drive episodic market volatility across global markets,” the bond giant said, “investors are getting higher sovereign bond yields than a year ago to help compensate for these risks.

If governments do carry out fiscal adjustments, such as the planned UK budget tightening, yields have room to fall, the money manager said.In the US Treasury market, Pimco said it still finds five- to seven-year Treasuries attractive and it’s “becoming more constructive on longer-dated bonds as yields rise.” The market has “value for patient investors with an intermediate time horizon,” the firm wrote.Last month, Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco, said long-term US Treasury yields above 5% are leading the firm to reduce its underweight position on the debt.

US Treasury yields across the 2-, to 10-year area have risen upwards of 50 basis points over the past month, leaving short-dated benchmarks approaching 5%. September was the worst month for US Treasuries since October 2024, with a Bloomberg index falling about 2.2%.

Pimco offers other points of consideration for the next 6 to 12 months: “Higher interest rates will affect a credit default cycle that was already well underway,” and for “corporate direct lending, investors face disappointment relative to returns of recent years”The firm says its “yield curve views are becoming more balanced as investors can now find healthy yields across maturities”The current AI expansion “is at the heart of the investment opportunity in credit,” and investors should look for “more compensation for regulatory and legal risks and politics tied to the U.S.

midterm elections”AI disruption for companies favors diversification. “Software is an obvious candidate, but the possibilities are more widespread, and companies that lag in the AI implementation race are at risk of being left behind”With more frequent geopolitical, energy, and other supply shocks, investors should consider exposure to commodities and real assets

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets