Piyasalarda Kritik Bir Hafta: Erişimler, CPI ve Gelir Raporları Finansta Belirleyici Olacak

Kısaca

Kâr raporları ve CPI verisi bu hafta kilit, S&P 500 yeni zirvelerdeyken 10 yıl ABD tahvil getirisi 5,35% seviyesine çıktı Havacılığın ardından Orta Doğu ve Körfez bölgelerindeki gelişmeler ve drone saldırıları risk iştahını etkiliyor Piyasa öngörüleri, bilanço sezonunun sonuçlarıyla şekillenecek; dikkat edilen göstergeler ve izlenecek yol belirleniyor

Ana mesele

Kısa vadede enflasyon verileri ve bilanço sezonu finansal piyasalarda volatiliteyi belirleyecek

Ne değişti?

Bilanço sezonu ve enflasyon verileri, borçlanma maliyetlerini belirleyen kritik kilitler olarak öne çıkıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için yatırım kararlarını yönlendirecek başlıca göstergeler bu hafta netleşecek

Ne oldu?

FXStreet analizine göre bu hafta kâr raporları ve enflasyon verileri piyasaların yönünü belirledi

Neden şimdi?

Bilanço raporlarının yakın zamanda açıklanması ve enflasyon göstergelerinin haftalık takvimde kritik olmasıyla şimdi analiz zamanı

Neden önemli?

Borçlanma maliyetleri ve likidite dinamikleri yatırım kararlarını doğrudan etkiler

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kurumsal yatırım fonları
• Merkez bankası politikaları yarısında etkilenebilir
• Hisse senedi yatırımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Hisse senetlerinde volatilite artabilir; borçlanma maliyetlerindeki yükseliş pazarı baskılayabilir

Riskler

• Borçlanma maliyetlerinde sürpriz yükseliş
• Piyasa coğrafi gerilimlerden olumsuz etkilenebilir
• Kâr ezberlerinin üzerinde beklentilerin karşılanamaması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Kâr raporları başlangıcı
• CPI ve diğer enflasyon göstergeleri
• Merkez bankası konuşmaları
• Tahvil getirilerinde hareketlerin izlenmesi

Haberin tamamı

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields. However, beneath the surface calm, there is growing concern about the plumbing in financial markets, everything from the cost of capital to the sustainability of the AI trade. High impact week for financial markets This is a high impact week for financial markets.

Earnings season will ramp up with Q3 reports from the major Wall Street banks. US CPI, the UK’s August GDP reading, Eurozone CPI and US retail sales will dominate the economic calendar. Geopolitics are also in focus as the war in the Middle East shifts deeper into the Gulf after Saudi Arabia’s airport suffered drone damage from Houthi attacks.

All eyes will also be on the bond market as we lead up to key central bank speeches throughout the week at the IMF/ World Bank conference.Bond yield breakout a key theme for 2026We have witnessed extremely choppy price action in recent months, however, US stocks reached fresh record highs last week, the S&P 500 rose more than 1%, at the same time the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.35%, the highest level since 2002.

The bond yield breakout is turning into the defining story of 2026, not only are US yields surging, but the 30-year UK yield reached 6% last week, and France now pays more to borrow money than Italy and Greece. Both countries have high stakes budgets coming up, at the same time as fiscal deficits are coming under the gaze of bond investors.

Why the stock market rally doesn't feel like a true bull market Although US blue chip stock markets are at or near record highs, it feels like a bull market with no horns. The foundations are weak, for example, only 25% of US blue chip stocks rose last month, and concentration risk is growing, with the top 10 largest companies listed in the US now making up 40% of the index.

The Russell 2000, which is less tech-heavy and includes medium-sized US companies, is down nearly 5% in the past month, even as the S&P 500 surges.Narrow breadth in the US stock market rally is a problem for investors as we move into Q3 earnings season. However, it is not a reliable sell signal, and this is why stock markets have risen for most of this decade, even though concentration risk has often been cited as a major risk factor for markets.

US AI trade props up the DollarAre investors being complacent? We are about to find out. Market valuations have fallen this year, even as stocks have risen to record highs. The world’s savings are pouring into the AI trade, over other equity sectors, and the AI trade is largely centred in the US. This is why the dollar is rallying, and why the dollar may not act like a safe haven if the AI trade falters and we see foreign buyers rush to the exits all at once.

Is the non-tech trade about to make a comeback? Although chips, and memory chips in particular, is where the real money is being made in the AI trade, the market seems to be cooling on this sub-sector. The Korean Kospi, which is loaded with chip makers, fell last week to the tune of 2%. Added to this, last week’s outperformance by US stocks was led by the non-tech trade, with energy, consumer staples, healthcare and real estate the top-performing sectors.

The technology sector fell by 0.5% along with industrials. Within the AI trade, there has been a subtle shift in demand in recent days. As the memory and semiconductor stocks have struggled, Nvidia fell nearly 3% last week, and SanDisk, the memory chip maker, was down more than 10%, software stocks have improved. Q4 battle between stocks and bonds However, the AI trade has a formidable foe in the bond market.

Not only do rising bond yields erode the value of future tech earnings, rising yields now support bond ownership over equities. Last week, bond funds attracted more interest than equities. This suggests that investors have a preference for income (yield) over speculation.

As fears rise that the AI trade is in a bubble, the market may focus on the attractiveness of holding government debt, even if there are concerns about the fiscal position of many developed countries including the US, France, the UK and Japan.Two opposing forces for energy prices Energy prices will also be in focus and there could be two opposing forces at play for oil and fuel prices this week. The first is geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Brent crude closed the week above $100 per barrel, and the oil price remains stubbornly elevated. The market will have to digest a broadening out of the US/ Iran war to include Saudi Arabia, which was attacked over the weekend by the Iranian-backed Houthis.

Although no energy infrastructure was damaged at the weekend, Saudi has been extremely efficient at rerouting oil supplies and keeping oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is back to 80% of pre-war levels, according to some reports. Any threat to this could add to the risk premium attached to the oil price, as freight and logistics costs could rise if Saudi Arabia is dragged into the war. Ultimately, this could keep upward pressure on the oil price in the coming weeks.

Diesel inflation is the key issue for central bankers However, the problem for the central banks and governments around the world is that it is no longer an oil inflation story, and instead it is a diesel inflation story. On diesel, the news is more positive as we start a new week. President Trump announced a controversial agreement with Russia to release millions of tonnes of Russian diesel to US and global markets.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet