Rupee hareketleri: Temeller, müdahale ve piyasa havası hangi unsurlarla şekilleniyor

Kısaca

Rupee, Ocak 2022’den Ağustos 2026’da dolar karşısında 74,44'ten 95,47’e yükseldi; yaklaşık yüzde 28’lik değer kaybı kaydedildi. RBI müdahalesi ve piyasa güveninin hareketleri belirlemede rolü vurgulanıyor; bazı dönemlerde cari işlemler açığı baskısı devreye girdi. Rapor, kısa vadede 94,5–96 Rs aralığının yakın vadede baskın olabileceğini değerlendiriyor; takip edilecek göstergeler: rezervler, sermaye akımları ve müdahale sinyalleri.

Ana mesele

Rupinin hareketleri çok sayıda etkenin toplam etkisine bağlı olarak şekilleniyor

Ne değişti?

Rupinin yönü, temel göstergeler ile Merkez Bankası müdahalesi arasındaki etkileşimde belirsizlik içeriyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya: Döviz ve rezervler üzerinde dalgalı bir baskı, yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir

Ne oldu?

Rupenin hareketleri temel göstergeler, RBI müdahalesi ve piyasa duyarlılığı arasındaki etkileşimle oluştu.

Neden şimdi?

Ukrayna savaşı sonrası küresel dinamikler değişti ve sermaye akımları ile rezervler bu rotayı etkiledi.

Neden önemli?

Geniş bir yatırım ve ticaret ortamını etkileyerek ülkelerin borçlanma maliyetlerini değiştirebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• Hindistan ithalat ve ihracat firmaları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

FX piyasaları ve gelişmekte olan piyasalarda volatilite etkisi

Riskler

• Döviz rezervlerinde daralma riski
• Müdahelerin etkisinin belirsiz kalması
• Kısa vadeli sermaye akımlarında dalgalanma

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• RBI’nin önümüzdeki adımları
• Cari hesap dengesi ve dış finansman maliyeti
• FCNR ve DCB akışlarındaki değişimler

Haberin tamamı

The rupee’s movement over the past four years has reflected a mix of fundamentals, Reserve Bank of India intervention and market sentiment, making it difficult to attribute currency moves to any single factor, according to a report titled ‘What drives the exchange rate?’ by Bank of Baroda.Since the eruption of the Ukraine war in 2022, the rupee has moved from an average of Rs 74.44 per dollar in January 2022 to an average of Rs 95.47 per dollar in August 2026, a depreciation of around 28%.134482291The movement has come amid varying trends across major currencies.

During the same period, the dollar appreciated 2.4% against the euro, while the yen depreciated 38%, the Indonesian rupiah 24% and the Korean won 17%. The Brazilian real and Mexican peso, however, appreciated.The report notes that at times, the balance of payments warranted a depreciation in the rupee, while on other occasions the currency declined as the dollar strengthened.

This, it said, made it difficult to gauge the movement in the rupee.While the long-term expectation has generally been for a depreciation of 3-4%, the report says the underlying arguments have changed over the past few years.More recently, large inflows of dollars through FCNR and external commercial borrowings have not translated into a stronger rupee because the dollars have remained with the RBI and have been added to reserves rather than being infused into the market.“In the current situation, a range of Rs 94.5-96 looks likely in the near term,” the report said.Fundamentals and sentimentThe report broadly divides the forces affecting the rupee into fundamentals and sentiment.Fundamentals are reflected in changes in foreign currency assets, which in turn depend on the current account deficit and capital flows, including foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, NRI deposits and external commercial borrowings, among others.RBI intervention is another channel through which the currency can be influenced.

The central bank can intervene directly through spot-market transactions or take positions in the forward market, which can send strong signals to the market about the RBI’s position.The rupee can also be affected by changes in reserves arising from valuation effects.

Such changes are beyond direct control and can occur as movements in the dollar affect the value of reserve assets.Sentiment, meanwhile, is influenced by market expectations around the dollar, oil prices, gold imports, geopolitical developments and tariff policies.For example, rising oil prices can cause the rupee to decline, while signs of a truce can support the currency.

Market expectations about what the RBI may do can also influence sentiment.The report cites the RBI’s FCNR scheme involving swaps as an example. The rupee strengthened following the announcement despite there being no change in fundamentals.What the data saysTo assess how strongly these factors have influenced the rupee, Bank of Baroda conducted a series of regressions using monthly data from January 2022 to June 2026.

Data on RBI intervention was available up to June 2026.The analysis examined the percentage change in the rupee against variables including changes in foreign exchange reserves, the RBI’s net purchase or sale of dollars in the spot market, changes in the RBI’s forward position, monthly FPI flows and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate.The bank said these were “rudimentary regressions” intended to test the significance of the variables and determine the proportion of changes in the currency that could be explained by them.

The analysis, it stressed, cannot be used for forecasting, which would require additional tests.Foreign exchange reserve changes were used to encapsulate the fundamentals because they capture elements of both the capital and current accounts.

FPI flows were also examined separately as an academic exercise because currency movements are often assumed to be directly linked to portfolio flows.The regression results show that three sets of equations had the highest R-square values and involved four variables, although not all the variables in those equations were statistically significant.The R-square, or coefficient of determination, indicates the proportion of the change in the rupee explained by the independent variables included in each equation.RBI spot and forward operations emerge as significantThe RBI’s spot and forward positions were statistically significant in all the equations in which they were included as explanatory variables.When the RBI’s spot and forward positions were used together, the regression had an R-square of 34%.

When used independently, the explanatory power fell to 25% for spot intervention and 19% for forward positions. Both variables remained significant when considered separately.The report says the coefficient for spot intervention was 0.56 for a $1 billion infusion, while the coefficient for the forward position was 0.34.

When both operations were considered together, the coefficients were 0.49 and 0.26%, respectively.Based on these results, the report concludes that conducting both operations together would be more effective from the point of view of currency management.Why higher reserves may not translate into a stronger rupeeChanges in foreign exchange reserves were statistically significant in one of the regressions, but the R-square was lower at 18%.The report says this “probably explains why a large inflow of dollars resulting in a sharp increase in the forex reserves may not lead to a major change in the foreign exchange rate.”Also read: Jefferies’ Chris Wood calls energy India’s best structural growth story; names Hitachi Energy as picks-and-shovels play This is relevant to recent dollar inflows through FCNR and external commercial borrowings.

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Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets