Rusya Dizel Arzı ve Kasırga Riskiyle Petrol Piyasasında Yükseliş Sürüyor

Kısaca

Brent yaklaşık yüzde 0,4 yükselerek varil başına 105 dolar civarında kapanış yaptı; önceki günlerde yükseliş yüzde 4’ü aştı Rusya’dan dizel arzına ilişkin iddialar ve Hormuz Boğazı’ndaki riskler piyasayı destekliyor piyasa ve enerji şirketleri için operasyonel ve fiyat hareketleri izlenecek noktalar

Ana mesele

Küresel dizel arzı endişeleri ve arz/riske bağlı petrol fiyatlarında artış baskısı mevcut

Ne değişti?

Rusya dizel tesislerinden kaynaklanan arz sinyalleri ve Hormuz Boğazı’ndaki riskler fiyatları destekliyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji maliyetleri ve enflasyon baskısı artabilir; tüketici ve sanayi maliyetleri etkilenir

Ne oldu?

Brent petrol yaklaşık yüzde 0,4 artışla varil başına 105 dolar civarında kapandı; önceki gün yüzde 4’ü aşkın yükseliş görüldü

Neden şimdi?

Hormuz Boğazı’ndaki riskler ve Rusya’dan dizel arzı tartışması fiyatları etkiledi

Neden önemli?

Enerji maliyetleri küresel enflasyonu ve sanayi karlılıklarını etkileyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Tedarik zinciri paydaşları
• Perakende yakıt kullanıcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji piyasasında volatilite ve maliyet baskısı artabilir

Riskler

• Kısa vadede fiyat dalgalanmaları
• Arz güvenliği sorunu
• Regülasyon baskıları

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Hormuz Boğazı’ndaki gelişmeler
• Rusya dizel arzı ile ilgili resmi açıklamalar
• Brent ve dizel fiyat hareketlerindeki yöndeşeler

Haberin tamamı

<p>Oil ticked higher as the prospect of a wave of Russian diesel hitting global markets competed with mounting supply risks, from fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz to a hurricane in the US.<br /> <br /> Brent advanced about 0.4% to settle near $105 a barrel after surging more than 4% on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said in a social media post Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to global markets.

"Based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel," he wrote. Three million tons are equivalent to 22.5 million barrels.<br /> <br /> Heating oil futures sank as much as 5% in post-settlement trading, leading the energy complex lower.<br /> <br /> Diesel, the fuel that powers the global economy, has become one of the biggest pain points stemming from the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

While the price of crude oil is up some 70% this year, refined products have seen even sharper jumps, and US retail prices for diesel have risen above $6 a gallon for the first time ever - adding to voter frustration ahead of midterm elections in November. To combat the price surges, the Trump administration has weighed a controversial outright diesel export ban and has lifted limits on the use of a tax-exempt variety.<br /> <br /> Trump's claims tempered overwhelmingly bullish sentiment.

While more crude has been been flowing out of the Middle East lately, futures rallied this week as fresh tanker attacks by Iran boosted risks for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial energy chokepoint.<br /> <br /> Meanwhile, freight costs have soared to records as the tanker attacks add to risks in the waterway and renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen are adding further cross-currents to the market.<br /> <br /> "More vessels are now tied up in ship-to-ship transfers, which can take up to 10 days, while others are taking longer routes to avoid higher-risk areas," JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

"The arithmetic is straightforward: the longer each vessel spends moving cargo, the more vessels are needed to transport the same amount of oil."<br /> <br /> Beyond the Middle East, producers in the Gulf of Mexico have shut in roughly 72% of crude output as Hurricane Isaias pushes toward the US coast, and is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Nearly 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity lies in or near the storm's projected path.

Several ports are also shutting ahead of the hurricane, disrupting seaborne crude deliveries.<br /> <br /> Meanwhile, a historic freight rally caused by the fallout from the Iran war is also adding huge costs to the petroleum supply chain. Moving crude from the Persian Gulf to East Asia now costs more than six times as much as it did before the conflict.<br /> <br /> In some parts of the world, crude prices are even higher as traders look to secure the closest barrels.

The Dated Brent benchmark, which underpins prices in the Europe, topped $135 on Thursday, the highest since April, as refiners on the continent clamor for supplies. One bright spot: Saudi Aramco has told European oil refiners it will provide them with all the crude they asked for in November. Last month, Aramco told those same customers that they would be allocated no crude.<br /> <br /> Renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen has also added to anxieties across the region.

Three Saudi Arabians were killed and others were injured in two attacks on the main airport in the capital, Riyadh, on Thursday, Saudi authorities said.<br /> <br /> "The risk that further military escalation could disrupt those flows is keeping traders reluctant to build more aggressive short exposure and position for a sustained break below $100," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd.<br /> <br /> This is "a two-way market, where geopolitical risk premium competes with improving physical supply dynamics," he added.<br /> <br /> <strong><u>Oil Prices</u></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>WTI for November delivery edged up 0.4% to settle around $91.85 a barrel in New York.</strong></li> <li><strong>Brent for December settlement rose 0.4% to settle around $104.72 a barrel.</strong><br /> </li> </ul>

Kaynaklar

• Rigzone