Samsung’un rekor karı analist konsensüsünü karşılayamadı; TSMC rehberliği aştı

Kısaca

Samsung’un rekor karı analist konsensüsünü karşılayamadı; haber TSMC’nin rehberliğini aşmasıyla birlikte geldi küresel piyasalarda teknoloji hisselerinin odaklandığı dönemde görünüm değişti riskler ve izleyecek noktalar: rekabetçi talep, yatırımcı güveni, yan etkiler

Ana mesele

Samsung’un rekor karı analist beklentilerini karşılayamadı

Ne değişti?

Samsung karının analist tahminlerini karşılamaması ve TSMC’nin rehberliği aşması netleşti

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için piyasa odaklı hissiyat ve teknoloji hisseleri üzerinde volatilite olası

Ne oldu?

Samsung’un rekor karı analist konsensüsünü karşılamadı ve TSMC rehberliğini geçti.

Neden şimdi?

yarıiletken talebinde dalgalanma ve şirket yöneticilerinin yönlendirme mesajı nedeniyle dikkat çekti.

Neden önemli?

teknoloji ve yarıiletken hisseleri üzerinde kısa vadeli piyasa etkisi ve yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• teknoloji hisseleri yatırımcıları
• yatırım fonları
• teknoloji tedarik zinciri paydaşları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

yarıiletken ve teknoloji hisselerinde kısa vadeli baskı/volatilite potansiyeli

Riskler

• kısa vadeli düşüş riski
• yönlendirme belirsizliği
• piyasa tepki dalgalanması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• TSMC ve Samsung arasındaki yönlendirme trendleri
• yarıiletken talebi göstergeleri
• kullanılan muhasebe ve kar tablosundaki değişiklikler

Haberin tamamı

EU mid-market update: Indirects take 80.3% of the 10-year at 5.30% as Waller leaves October open for a pause; SpaceX CDS reaches 195bp alongside Broadcom's $50B-plus chip financing search; Samsung's record profit misses consensus while TSMC beats guidance.Notes/observations- The 10-year drew 80.3% indirect demand at 5.30%, with dealers left holding just 2.5% of the $39B reopening.

Wednesday's auction stopped 1.7bp through the 5.317% when-issued yield on a 2.77 cover against a six-auction average of 2.54, with indirects taking 80.3% against 74.1% normally, directs 17.1% and dealers 2.5% against 8.8%. The 5.300% stop was 46.6bp above September's 4.834%, when indirects had already taken 79.2% and cover reached 2.71; the secondary-market yield had touched 5.368% before the auction and retreated toward 5.28% afterward.

Tuesday's $58B 3-year had drawn just 57.6% indirect participation against 65.9% normally, with directs absorbing 31.7% and dealers 10.7%. The week's first two auctions put considerably more end-investor demand into ten years than three, ahead of Thursday's $22B long-bond reopening against September's 5.308% 30-year stop.- Waller separated the next hike's timing from its necessity, less than a day after the Fed minutes identified AI borrowing in both Treasury term premium and inflation.

The governor said Thursday that further increases would probably be required to return inflation to 2%, but that hikes need not occur at consecutive meetings, leaving October 27–28 open for a pause before December 8–9. He cited strengthening second-half activity, the unresolved Iran energy shock and demand from AI infrastructure, without specifying a terminal rate; he also defended conditional policy signals against Chair Warsh's preference for less forward guidance.

Wednesday's minutes showed all 12 voting members backing September's move to 3.75–4.00%, most expecting another increase by year-end, several judging policy only mildly restrictive or not restrictive, and a couple raising their estimates of neutral. The staff's August PCE estimates were 3.8% headline and 3.4% core under the previous methodology, falling to 3.6% and 3.2% under the BEA revision; several participants nevertheless saw AI demand adding to core goods inflation as tariff effects waned.

Fed funds pricing had already reduced October hike odds to roughly 17–20%, with December the preferred meeting.- SpaceX's five-year CDS reached 195.4bp as Broadcom began assembling more than $50B for OpenAI chips and Oracle sought another financing package. The SpaceX contract reportedly widened as much as 14.5bp Wednesday to its highest level since active trading began in June, while its 6.65% 2056 bond widened 12bp to a 238bp Treasury spread.

SpaceX is discussing $40B of Nvidia financing, reportedly comprising $30B of IG securities and $10B of bank loans, against projected annual revenue of about $44.5B; Broadcom has approached Apollo and Blackstone over funding for OpenAI's Nexus custom-chip programme, while Oracle is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs about a separate hardware purchase.

The Broadcom and SpaceX amounts alone exceed $90B, although the former remains an early-stage financing discussion and Oracle's requirement has not been quantified. The Fed's trading desk recorded a roughly 35bp increase in 2–10Y Treasury yields between meetings and specifically cited competition from private AI debt issuance as a contributor to term premium; hyperscaler spreads remained wide given both the volume and duration of borrowing.

SpaceX's credit spread has moved before its proposed $40B package has been placed.- Samsung's group operating margin reached 55.1% as TSMC beat Q3 sales guidance, but Largan says the smartphone order peak has passed. Samsung's preliminary KRW107.4T operating profit rose 20.0% q/q and 783% y/y, against KRW108.67T expected on the supplied tape; revenue of KRW195T missed the KRW201.9T estimate, leaving a 55.1% margin against 52.2% in Q2.

Memory pricing and HBM shipments drove the record quarter, while broker estimates put combined losses in parts of the consumer-device business above KRW1T; Samsung will not disclose divisional results until October 29. TSMC's September sales rose 54.6% y/y to NT$511.9B, completing a record NT$1.49T quarter against NT$1.46T expected, equivalent to $46.7B against July guidance of $44.6–45.8B.

September was nevertheless 0.6% below August's NT$514.8B, and Largan told its earnings call Thursday that October shipments should be roughly flat with September before falling in November as customers revise orders lower. Taiwan's September trade surplus meanwhile reached $23.6B against $19.0B expected, up from $22.3B in August.

TSMC's full margin and customer-mix disclosures arrive October 15.- France's 10-year approached 4.9% against Bunds near 3.5%, while Britain's 30-year gilt briefly crossed 6% three weeks before the budget. The OAT-Bund spread was around 139bp after Wednesday's renewed French selloff, reversing Tuesday's relief following Le Pen's fiscal proposals and taking French borrowing costs close to their post-2002 highs.

Italy and Greece also weakened, although France underperformed as the government continued negotiating a 2027 budget built around a deficit reduction from 5.4% to 5% of GDP. The UK's 30-year yield reached 6.036%, a 28-year high, and the 10-year approached 5.48%; Bank of America estimates UK borrowing could exceed previous projections by £15B in both the current fiscal year and 2027/28.

The rise coincided with oil returning above $100/bbl and longer-dated Treasury yields trading near 2002 levels, while France's spread over Bunds widened independently of the global duration move.- The IEA's proposed 100M-barrel acceleration is already inside March's 400M-barrel commitment, and European diesel rose as much as 8% after the agency confirmed it.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet