Santoli: S&P 500 rekora yakın, boğa güvenilir liderlikle hareket içinde

Kısaca

Piyasa yakın rekor toleransıyla hareket ediyor; S&P 500, kayda değer bir rallinin işaretlerini sürdürüyor. AI odaklı hisseler ve mega-kaplar rallisi, yatırımcı güvenini destekliyor; pazardaki hareketler dikkat çekiyor. Gelecek birkaç hafta için ABD ve küresel piyasalarda volatilite izlenecek; politika ve kârlılık verileri belirleyici olacak.

Ana mesele

S&P 500 rekora yakın seviyelerde hareket ediyor.

Ne değişti?

Boğa, tanınan liderlik ve AI odaklı hisselerin rallisiyle destekleniyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcı güveni güçlenebilir ve risk iştahı değişebilir.

Ne oldu?

S&P 500, rekorlara yakın seyrettiği ve aylar boyunca yatay hareketleri sürdürdüğü belirtildi.

Neden şimdi?

AI ve enerji maliyetlerinin etkileriyle hisse değerlerinde içsel dalgalanmalar devam ediyor; yatırımcılar dikkatli kalıyor.

Neden önemli?

Genel piyasa eğilimleri ve yatırımcı güveni, yıl sonu performansını şekillendirebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yatırımcılar
• büyük teknoloji hisseleri
• finans hisseleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Mega-kapital ve teknoloji hisseleri ön planda kalırken, finans sektörü de dolaylı etkiye maruz kalabilir.

Riskler

• piyasa volatilitesi artabilir
• yüksek faiz ortamı baskı yapabilir
• AI fiyatları ve talep belirsizliği sürebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• AI harcama ve gelir verileri
• mega-kaplar rallisinin sürmesi
• tempo ve hacim değişimleri

Haberin tamamı

When there's a strong undertow near the beach, the move is to swim sideways, traveling parallel to the shore to reach a point beyond the narrow rip current's pull.

The stock market seems to have executed such a cautious, patient maneuver. Months of bend-don't-break action had kept the S&P 500 within sight of record highs while that undertow pulled at parts of the market most exposed to higher oil prices, rising interest rates and a tiring household sector: consumer cyclicals, industrial shares and, lately, the banks.

Meantime, semiconductor stocks and most of the mega-cap tech platforms were convalescing as AI-overspending fears eroded investor conviction and compressed valuations.

Was Monday's propulsive rally, concentrated in the AI implementers of Big Tech, a sign that the market is revving to escape its summer-long stasis? Could both the "spenders" (hyperscalers) and the vendors (AI hardware providers) rally together for more than a couple of days?

Last week here I described an ambiguous setup in which the trend had held while a wall of worry built:

"The S&P 500′s months-long sideways churn reflects a tape that continues to rescue itself through alacritous rotation. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since June 1, but hasn't slipped more than 3% from a record high over that span. It has spent nearly the entire time since Aug. 4 inside the range of that single day's rally to a record high. Market breadth has eroded, but that also means internal oversold conditions are building. Seasonal tendencies are challenging, though everyone knows this. Institutional positioning has moderated by most measures."

Monday's 2% burst higher in the Nasdaq Composite would seem to lend credence to the argument, voiced to us on "Closing Bell Overtime" by Goldman Sachs head of Americas execution services John Flood on Friday, that light positioning by professionals, elevated short interest in Nasdaq stocks and persistent earnings momentum skewed the risk-reward higher for the market into year-end.

Meta Platforms' launch of its Muse AI agent app and Nebius's move to raise rental rates on AI computing access seemed to spark the buying spurt in related AI stocks.

There's a tidy first-in/first-out dynamic here at work. Semiconductor stocks peaked in late June, well before the broader tape did. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weathered a savage 30% drawdown, has been choppily trendless for two months, then in recent days finally broke above its downtrend and surmounted the 50-day moving average.

The "pace the frontier" scare in recent weeks, full of talk of model-driven human extinction, perhaps stress-tested the tech tape sufficiently for a further rebound. It would be similar to February's "software is doomed" panic inflamed by Citrini Research's sensational scenario analysis, which hit an already-skittish sector and in fact was published closer to the low in software stocks than to their former high.

Encouraging, on its face, though not a clear assertion of revived upside momentum just yet. Monday followed Friday's quarterly options expiration, which clearly left tactical traders underexposed to a rally driven by Meta and high-beta semiconductors, leading to a mad rush for quick call-option exposure, which could fizzle just as quickly. The semi index remains 15% off its peak. Meta shares haven't made a new high in 13 months. On the New York Stock Exchange Monday, with the S&P 500 up 1.5%, there were 160 new 52-week lows and 29 fresh highs.

It remains a spotty, hot-and-cold tape, albeit one that shows consistent resilience through rotations.

The reflex sell-off after Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate hike gave the S&P 500 a momentary test of 7500, which proved a timely shakeout. But this still leaves a Fed chair who said pretty clearly that financial conditions remain too loose and suggested he might need to remove another "dose of accommodation" or two. And the Nasdaq clicking to new highs while bond yields ease and the VIX slips under 15 all make financial conditions even looser.

BCA Research lays out the implications, as its strategists see it: Either we get "a short [tightening] cycle with yields peaking within months, or an overheating economy and a bond market that settles only after equities break. Either way, the equity cushion is thin, and the market now has to earn its gains through profits rather than multiples."

I mentioned a few weeks ago that it was prudent to assume that absolute equity valuations have peaked for the foreseeable future, back when the S&P 500 traded at 23-times forward earnings 11 months ago.

The market has been trying to make its peace with the degree to which the second quarter reflected an all-in apex of bullish atmospherics. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs last week said this quarter would see deceleration in trading and investment banking. Retail risk-taking crested with the SpaceX IPO in late June. Momentum, leverage and crowding in the AI-buildout trade will not likely return to the extremes of June, which preceded the spectacular liquidation of the Situational Awareness hedge fund.

A maturing bull market about to enter its fifth year could simply be reloading its reliance on its narrow, familiar leadership and preparing for another earnings season that will feature gaudy profit growth colliding with an investing crowd that already expects nothing less.

This indicator from John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors uses several data points to reflect both what investors are saying and what they are doing.

"While we have not seen proper capitulation via a correlated sell-off, bullish sentiment continues to moderate after this summer's speculative peak, reducing headwinds. Anecdotally, much skepticism remains about this bull market.," said Kolovos of the latest reading.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• CNBC - Top News