Taşıma maliyetleri Eylül’de kapasite daralmasıyla daha da yükseldi

Kısaca

Kapasite daralması nedeniyle taşıma fiyatları yükseliyor; LMI 70,2’ye çıktı ve 12 aylık öngörüde kapasite 37,9 olarak bekleniyor. Envanter seviyeleri yükseldi ve maliyetler en az 79,9 düzeyinde kalıyor. Tedarik zincirinde perakende ve toptan aşamasında stok yönetimi dikkatle izlenecek; yıl sonu hareketleri netleşecek.

Ana mesele

Kapasite daralması taşıma fiyatlarını yükseltiyor

Ne değişti?

Kapasite daralması sürüyor ve maliyetler yükseliş eğilimini sürdürüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya lojistik maliyetler ve tedarik zinciri planlaması üzerinde baskı oluşması beklenir

Ne oldu?

Eylül ayında taşıma fiyatları yüksek enflasyonatif düzeyde kaldı; kapasite daralması ve yakıt maliyetleri baskıyı artırdı.

Neden şimdi?

Kısıtlı kapasite ve düzenleyici denetimlerin sürmesiyle taşıma talebi güç kazandı.

Neden önemli?

Taşıma maliyetleri ürün fiyatlarına yansırsa tüketici ve işletme karlılığı etkilenir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Nakliye şirketleri ve lojistik operatörleri
• Perakende ve toptan satış şirketleri
• Üreticiler ve dağıtım için tedarikçiler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Lojistik maliyetleri artarken envanter ve satış dönemi planlamalarını etkiler

Riskler

• Maliyet baskısının tüketici fiyatlarına aktarılması
• Lojistik kapasite üzerinde daha fazla baskı
• Envanter fazlası veya eksikliği riski

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Kapasite göstergelerindeki değişimler
• Taşıma fiyatlarındaki hareketler
• Envanter seviyelerinin gelişimi
• Regülasyon ve yakıt fiyatları etkisi

Haberin tamamı

Transportation prices continued to surge in September as capacity tightened further, according to a monthly sentiment survey of supply chain executives.

The Logistics Managers’ Index showed transportation prices (92.7) remained highly inflationary, up 2.7 percentage points from August . (The LMI is a diffusion index in which a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below 50 signals contraction.)

The pricing index has logged readings of 90 or above in five of the past six months. Record diesel fuel prices and heightened regulatory enforcement continue to restrict truck capacity, keeping the index near all-time highs.

Transportation capacity (34.4) experienced “a steep rate of contraction,” falling 5.6 points sequentially. The dataset has signaled contraction for 10 straight months. Transportation utilization (66.1) increased notably, but at a rate that was 4.5 points slower than in the prior month.

Logistics managers surveyed expect the transportation market to remain very tight over the next 12 months, returning future readings of 37.9 for capacity, 70.8 for utilization and 86.1 for pricing.

The overall LMI (70.2) was up 3.6 points in September to the second-highest level in four and a half years. (June’s 71.1 reading was the highest level recorded over that period.)

Inventory levels (58.9) increased 6.1 points, keeping inventory costs elevated at 79.9, 1.3 points above August.

The report said retail inventories are still sitting at the wholesale level of the supply chain. Upstream respondents (wholesalers and manufacturers) returned a 61.4 reading for inventory levels, while downstream respondents (mostly retailers) returned a 53.8 reading.

“This dynamic likely represents a combination of goods being rushed over late due to late-breaking confidence in Q4 consumer spending along with the neo-seasonal trend to only move goods down to retailers in mid-October,” the Tuesday report said.

“This increase likely reflects two things: first, inventories were not overbuilt in summer 2026 to avoid tariffs; second, U.S. consumers have remained strong in the face of inflationary pressures and retailers are building stocks accordingly.”

It also noted that companies have not “finished building up inventories” ahead of the holidays.

Increased inventories pushed warehouse capacity (39.3) 14.2 points lower and into contraction territory. This was the fastest rate of contraction for warehousing space since March 2022, shortly after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Warehouse capacity was nearly 10 points tighter upstream, where the bulk of the inventories sit.

Warehousing utilization (64.3) increased 4.7 points, with warehouse prices (73.5) continuing to see “robust expansion,” but down 1.5 points sequentially.

Aggregate logistics costs (inventory, warehousing and transportation) totaled 246.1 during the month, up 2.5 points sequentially.

“This is the highest reading for this aggregate metric since April of 2022, when supply-driven inflation was rampant in the wake of both the cessation of COVID-era demand and the invasion of Ukraine,” the report said. “These high costs are putting significant pressure on supply chains and consumers alike.”

The LMI is a collaboration among Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University and the University of Nevada, Reno, conducted with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.

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Kaynaklar

• FreightWaves