Teknoloji ağırlıklı yükseliş sürüyor: S&P ve Nasdaq yeni zirve kaydediyor, pek çok hisse geri planda kalıyor

Kısaca

S&P ve Nasdaq yeni zirve kaydetti; teknoloji ağırlığı yaklaşık yüzde 40, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, META dahil edilirse yüzde yaklaşık 53’e çıkıyor Yıl başından bu yana S&P yüzde 14,2 artış gösterirken Eşit Ağırlık S&P yüzde 10,8 artış kaydetti Geniş kitle yarıdan fazlası uzun vadeli trendin altında işlem yapıyor; dikkatli izleme ve piyasa katılımı izlenecek

Ana mesele

Büyük teknoloji hisselerinin öncülüğünde endeksler yeni zirve kaydediyor; pek çok hisse uzun vadeli trendin altında kalıyor.

Ne değişti?

Eşit ağırlık endeksi farklı tablo gösteriyor; teknoloji payı artarken toplam endeksin yapısı değişiyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucu, büyük teknoloji isimlerinin sürükleyici rolünü görürken geniş piyasanın hareketlerinin sınırlı kaldığını fark edecek.

Ne oldu?

Büyük teknoloji hisselerinin öncülüğünde S&P ve Nasdaq yeni zirvelere ulaştı.

Neden şimdi?

Endeksler teknoloji ağırlığının yüksek olması ve bazı büyük isimlerin (AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, META) bunun dışında kalmasıyla ağırlık farklılıkları yaratıyor.

Neden önemli?

Piyasa iki kutupta: ağır toplar yükselirken çok sayıda hisse kırılma bölgesinde, bu da risk ve hareketlilik getirir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Büyük yatırımcılar ve portföy yöneticileri
• Orta ve küçük ölçekli şirketler
• Teknoloji hisselerinin performansını yakından takip eden profesyoneller

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Teknoloji ağırlığı yüksek olduğu için endeks performansı büyük ölçüde teknoloji hisselerinden etkileniyor; geniş piyasa dalgalanabilir.

Riskler

• Piyasa dengelerinin bozulması halinde daha geniş hisselerde satış baskısı artabilir
• Teknoloji bilanço ve verimlilik göstergelerine bağlı hareketler etkilenebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• İncelemelerin teknoloji ağırlığının korunup korunmadığı
• Eşit ağırlık endeksinin performansı
• Küçük ve orta ölçekli şirketlerin sürücü olma potansiyeli

Haberin tamamı

S&P & Nasdaq break out to new highs.The bulk of the market remains under stress.Oil steady, gold steady and bond yields up again this morning.Another treasury auction – today it is the 10 yr.Earnings just around the corner.Try the Risotto Siciliana.And just like that – the S&P makes a new record closing high…. the Nasdaq makes a new record closing high – yet portfolios are NOT at record highs….

many still remain below where they were 2 months ago…And while investors don’t really want to hear it – there is a rational and clear explanation….and one that we have discussed before but will revisit now.Remember – the S&P is a market weighted average – so the biggest companies (think sexy tech) have an outsized weighting on the index….and remember the TECH weighting in the index stands at about 40% and that does NOT include AMZN, GOOG, TSLA or META – which are NOT considered ‘TECH’ – they are considered Consumer Discretionary & Communications – I know, sounds a bit ridiculous but it is what it is.

If you include those four names then the percentage weighting approaches 53% - more than half of the index – making it clear just how influential the tech sector and these names are to the headline index.Now, if you compare that to the Equal Weight S&P – which gives every company the same weight vs. the biggest companies having greater influence then the picture become clearer.

And remember – both indexes have the same names.So, when we look at it – what we find is that more than half of the stocks are trading below their long term trendline – which means they are well into ‘correction territory’ if not ‘bear market territory’ – all while many of those ‘tech’ names are kissing new highs.

So, what that means is the biggest names are doing the ‘heavy lifting while 50% of the names struggle.And remember this – at the lows of this most recent draw down that began in August – the S&P lost about 3.9% while the Equal Weight S&P gave back nearly 7%. YTD – the S&P is up 14.2% while the Equal Weight S&P is up 10.8%....

And that’s it – it’s not more complicated than that.At the end of the day - the Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P added 0.6%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, the Russell lost 0.6%, the Transports lost 0.5%, the Equal Weight S&P added 0.6% while the Mag 7 rose 0.5%.Now before you go lighting your hair on fire – narrow leadership does not mean the bottom is about to fall out, but what it does mean is that a small group of names are carrying the index and if they start to disappoint on any number of metrics – think cash flow, margins, demand, competition or guidance – it will look very different and the speed at which that may happen might shock the markets….

because once the algos decide they want out – is when the sh*t hits the fan.Selling will beget more selling, and buyers will see that and pull back, they won’t disappear, they will just pull back – happy to buy stocks at cheaper prices…I mean – who doesn’t love a good deal?Which brings us right back to coming earnings which are now less than one week away….

And as I pointed out on Monday – FactSet is expecting profits to rise by 29.3% y/y, Bloomberg Intelligence expects them to rise by 25% y/y – either way - that’s not nothing….and it helps explain why some investors are looking past the much of the negativity.So here is my concern – how much good news is already priced into some of those highflyers? Because when stocks hit records BEFORE the results arrive, then companies better deliver.

They better not disappoint on any metric, not one…and the guidance will need to be robust, or the action will be at risk. And remember – they can have a great qtr. but if they are cautious going forward – expect to see a lot of RED. It’s called re-pricing risk.And the names we are talking about – mostly those AI names that are carrying the index – the ones that investors can’t get enough of, think a crowded trade – those are the names to focus on….

I mean NVDA’s market cap is exploding, AMD tells us that chip demand is strong into 2029…. I think she said ‘several years’….and several is more than a couple. MRVL had their investor day and raised their 2028 forecast, investors took that stock up 6% – Why? Data Center chip demand! CEG (Constellation Energy) announced a ‘major power agreement’ with GOOG and that cause investors to take that stock up 12%.

I mean the story goes on and on…At the end of the day – Utilities surged by 3%, I mean think about that…the most boring sector in the group surged by 3%! And that makes sense – the group was down nearly 7% going into yesterday….

Consumer Discretionary rose 1.2%, Real Estate up 1%, Industrials and Consumer Staples gained 0.9%, Tech, Energy, and Basic Materials added 0.4% while Communications ended flat and Healthcare lost 0.2%.Ok – let’s move on…I beat that argument to death!Bonds rallied just a bit – the TLT and TLH both up by 0.25%....and that caused yields to back of ‘just a bit’. The 10 yr fell 4 bps to end the day at 5.27%. This morning though, it has taken those back and yields are once again at 5.31%.

The 30- yr lost 1 bp but this morning it is up 4 bps at 5.70%.... reminding us that the cost of money is getting more expensive.Yesterday’s $58 billion auction of 3 yr note went ‘ok’…..Buyers did not demand higher yields – that’s good. Today we’ll get a $39 billion 10 yr note auction and tomorrow will bring us a $22 billion 30- yr auction. Now lending money for 10 – 30 yrs is different than lending it for 3 yrs….

So, let’s see what investors demand today.Today also brings the September FOMC mins and like I said yesterday – expect the talking heads to pull it all apart looking for new clues on what’s next at the FED. I don’t think we will get it, but let’s see….

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet