Üçüncü çeyreğe dair kazanç revizyonları olumlu seyrini sürdürüyor ve sektörler arası güç kazanıyor

Kısaca

Üçüncü çeyrekte kazançlar yüzde 24,3 artış bekleniyor ve 8. çeyrek artışına yönelik umutlar güçleniyor Revizyonlar olumlu ve geniş tabanda yayılıyor; teknoloji ve enerji öne çıkıyor Piyasalar için izlenecek nokta: revizyon eğiliminin sürdürülebilirliği ve sektörel etkiler

Ana mesele

Üçüncü çeyrekte kazançlar yüzde 24,3 artış bekleniyor

Ne değişti?

Revizyon eğilimi geniş tabana yayılarak 7 sektörde artış gösterdi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar kazanç revizyonlarındaki güçlenmeden olumlu etkilenebilir

Ne oldu?

FXStreet kaynağına göre üçüncü çeyrek kazanç revisionları olumlu seyrediyor

Neden şimdi?

Piyasa için bu dönemde verilerin baskı altında olmadan revize edilmesi etkili

Neden önemli?

Geniş tabanlı revizyonlar risk iştahını ve getiri beklentisini yükseltiyor

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Portföy yöneticileri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Teknoloji ve enerji öne çıkarken finans sektörü de olumlu revizyonlardan faydalanıyor

Riskler

• Küresel belirsizlikler
• Enerji arzı dalgalanmaları

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Q3 sonuçları sürprizleri izlenecek
• 2026 Q4 için revizyon eğilimleri yakından takip edilecek

Haberin tamamı

The Q3 earnings season takes center stage this week when JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) , and others report September-quarter results before the market’s open on Tuesday, October 13th.

This week’s reporting docket, comprising 29 S&P 500 members, also includes companies outside the Finance sector, with bellwethers like Johnson & Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor Company, and UnitedHealth also reporting quarterly results.The expectation is that S&P 500 earnings will increase by +24.3% from the same period last year, the 8th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.The Tech sector remains a major growth contributor, but momentum is broad-based, with 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track for positive earnings growth in Q3.

Importantly, the revisions trend remains positive and broad-based, highlighting a steadily improving outlook.The quarterly chart below details actual results alongside Q3 2026 growth expectations and forward projections.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAs noted earlier, the revisions trend has been positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year.

Estimates for Q3 increased after the quarter got underway, and we are seeing a similar trend at play for 2026 Q4 estimates, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis positive revision behavior is not new; it extends a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year. The positive revisions were at first concentrated in Technology and, more recently, Energy following Middle East supply disruptions.

However, for 2026 Q4 and what we saw in Q3, constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors—including Aerospace, Construction, Industrials, Finance, and Transportation alongside Tech and Energy.On the negative side, Q4 estimates remain under pressure for these 8 sectors – Conglomerates, Autos, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Medical, Business Services, and Retail.It is important to note that estimates for full-year 2027 have also been similarly trending higher, which we show a little later in this note.Sector focus: Broad-based strengthQ3 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 6 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth.

The multi-industry Conglomerates sector is the only one expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year (earnings decline of –35.1%).The 6 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q3 are Aerospace (up +159.5%), Energy (+117.1%), Tech (+43.3%), Basic Materials (+29.7%), Transportation (+10.9%) and Industrial Products (+13.3%).Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index drops to +20.1% from +24.3% once the Energy sector’s contribution is excluded from the index.

Excluding the Tech sector, Q3 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.2%.For the Finance sector, which dominates the reporting docket this week, Q3 earnings are expected to be up +3.3% from the same period last year on +6.3% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.The chart below shows Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the Finance sector relative to the preceding two periods and what is expected over the following four quarters.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe Banks and Brokerages industry, which includes JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and others, is expected to post +2.5% earnings growth in Q3 on +9.7% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields during Q3 has been an overhang on bank and broker stocks lately.

Rising yields don’t just cause paper losses on balance sheet holdings of available-for-sale bonds, as they also pressure net interest margins through surging deposit betas and have negative effects on credit demand and quality.

The unfavorable interest rate backdrop has clouded the outlook for deal flow, with a number of high-profile IPOs getting delayed as a result.Q3 earnings season scorecardThe Q3 earnings season is not officially getting underway with this week’s results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and others.

Officially, the Q3 reporting cycle began with recent results from Pepsi (PEP), Micron (MU), Nike (NKE), and others.The Nike, Micron, and other reports were for these companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August, which count as part of the September-quarter tally. Including the Nike and Micron reports, we now have such Q3 results from 19 S&P 500 members.

With another 29 index members reporting results this week, including the aforementioned banks, we will have seen results from 48 S&P 500 members by the end of this week.Total Q3 earnings for the 19 S&P 500 members that have reported results already are up +150.9% from the same period last year on +27% higher revenues, with 78.9% beating EPS estimates and 73.7% beating revenue estimates.The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe very strong earnings and revenue growth pace for this group of 19 S&P 500 members is mostly due to Micron, whose Q3 earnings increased +1075.7% from the year-earlier level.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet