Washington eyaletindeki milyoner vergisi için yeniden referandum tartışması ve beklenen etkileri

Kısaca

Washington’da yüzde 9,9 oranında milyoner vergisi, geliri 1 milyon doların üzerinde olanları kapsıyor ve yıllık yaklaşık 3,5 milyar dolar ek bütçeye katkı sağlıyor; şimdi bu verginin kaldırılması için referandum gündemde sebepler, bütçe açığını kapatma ve kamu hizmetlerini sürdürme çabalarıyla bağlantılı; karşıt taraf ise vergi tabanını daraltma kaygısını öne sürüyor iş dünyası ve yatırımcılar için belirsizlik nedeniyle karar alma süreçlerinde dikkatli adımlar bekleniyor

Ana mesele

Washington’da milyoner vergisinin yürürlükten kaldırılması için referandum çabaları güçleniyor

Ne değişti?

yürürlükte olan yüzde dokuz buçukluk milyoner vergisinin geleceği belirsizleşti; iptal girişimleri oyların sonucunu bekliyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

okuyucular belediyelerin ve eyalet bütçesinin hangi kalemlerden etkileneceğini görecek

Ne oldu?

Washington eyaletinde milyoner vergisi olarak bilinen yüzde 9,9 oranındaki vergi yürürlükte ve kaldırılması için referandum çalışmaları başladı

Neden şimdi?

2020’lerden itibaren haberleşme ve siyasi kutuplaşmanın etkisiyle vergi yapısında değişiklik ihtiyacı tartışılıyor; eyalet bütçesinin sağlık ve eğitim gibi temel kalemlerinin finansmanı gündemde

Neden önemli?

kamu hizmetleri için önemli bir gelir kaynağı olarak görülen verginin kaldırılması bütçe dengesini etkiler; yatırımcı güveni ve iş iklimi üzerinde belirsizlik yaratabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• 20.000 en yüksek gelirli hanesi
• devlet harcamalarından faydalanan vatandaşlar
• iş dünyası ve yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

vergi politikası belirsizliği kısa vadede vergi planlarını etkileyebilir

Riskler

• bütçe açığı artışı
• kamu hizmetlerinde kısıtlama
• kamu borçlanmasında baskı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• referandum sonuçları
• efektif bütçe planlarında değişiklik
• kamu hizmeti finansmanında yeni alternatifler

Haberin tamamı

The millionaire tax is signed into law by governor Bob Ferguson. Photograph: Office of Governor Bob Ferguson View image in fullscreen The millionaire tax is signed into law by governor Bob Ferguson. Photograph: Office of Governor Bob Ferguson Washington state Millionaire tax no more? Rightwing groups lead effort to repeal Washington state law An initiative on November’s ballot aims to overturn the 9.9% tax on earnings above $1m – who’s winning the fight?

Prefer the Guardian on Google V oters in Washington state will soon decide the fate of the state’s so-called “ millionaire tax ” – a 9.9% income tax on earnings above $1m that was signed into law in March and is now facing a conservative-backed effort to repeal it.

An initiative on November’s ballot aims to overturn the tax, claiming that the tax represents a slippery slope, and would eventually result in taxes for more than just millionaires. A coalition of advocacy groups and unions opposing the initiative say taxing the state’s 20,000 highest-earning households could raise approximately $3.5bn in necessary annual revenue to fund core priorities like education and healthcare, and expand tax credits and sales tax exemptions.

Facing dwindling federal funds under the Trump administration yet home to substantial tech-industry wealth, including prominent billionaires such as Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer, and, until recently , Jeff Bezos, Washington has joined other states and municipalities by turning to its wealthiest earners as a source of revenue. Massachusetts, Maine, and New York already impose a unique tax rate on millionaires, and Hawaii passed a similar measure in May.

California, whose resident billionaires possess a collective net worth hovering above $2tn, will see voters decide on a proposed one-time, 5% tax on billionaires’ wealth. The measure is opposed by most billionaires as well as Gavin Newsom, the governor; some progressive groups also question the long-term benefits of the one-off tax.

Washington governor Bob Ferguson has said he would veto any effort to expand the millionaire tax to encompass lower-earning households. And, after decades of voter-rejected efforts to reform the state’s tax structure, which has historically lacked an income tax and instead levied sales taxes, property taxes, and fees, Washingtonians in recent years have approved new progressive revenue streams, including a capital gains tax. Advocates claim that the millionaire tax is part of a clear mandate to better align the state’s largely regressive tax code with its progressive values.

T he statewide fight over an income tax really began in the 1930s, according to Washington state senate majority leader Jamie Pedersen, an architect of the millionaire tax. Nearly 100 years ago, the state’s supreme court ruled that income taxes constituted a property tax, hamstringing efforts to diversify beyond flat-rate excises. By 2002, a state commission led by Bill Gates Sr concluded that Washington’s tax code was uniquely regressive, and called for a state-level income tax. But, in 2010, voters still voted by wide margins against a proposed tax for those earning above $200,000; Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s then CEO, was the leading contributor to the campaign opposing the tax, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos ranked fourth.

A reliance on sales, property, and other taxes leaves the state with “the second-worst tax code in the nation when it comes to who actually pays as a share of their income”, said Emily Vyhnanek of the Washington State Budget and Policy Center , a nonpartisan research group. Those in the lowest-earning quintile spend up to 13.8% of their annual income on state taxes, while those in the top 1% currently spend about 4%, she said.

In 2021, lawmakers passed a 7% tax on capital gains above $250,000, which survived a constitutional challenge and a conservative-led ballot initiative aiming to overturn it in 2024. The initiative’s resounding defeat was “some indication that voters were willing to vote for something that the opponents labeled as an income tax”, Pedersen said. By 2025, facing a nearly $15bn shortfall over the ensuing four years, Democratic lawmakers debated new ways to tackle the state’s structural budget problem, and landed on the high earners’ income tax.

Lawmakers had “99.9% certainty” that conservative groups would challenge the tax through a ballot initiative, Pedersen said.

B rian Heywood, a conservative hedge fund executive and the founder of Let’s Go Washington , a political action committee, has helped spearhead and fund initiative 645, the proposal the ballot initiative to overturn the millionaire tax. Heywood and his business moved from California to Washington state in 2010, in part drawn by the state’s lack of capital gains and income taxes. Voicing concerns about a slippery slope, Heywood said the new income tax and ensuing capital flight risked compromising Washington’s “golden goose” economy, which features Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing, and others.

“I can’t tell you how many people have left the state,” he said. “My business partner moved to Arizona. I probably know 50 people that are deca- or centi-millionaires that have left the state.”

Academic research suggests about 2% of residents affected by the millionaire tax might leave Washington, according to Rian Watt of the Seattle-based thinktank Economic Opportunity Institute.

View image in fullscreen Brian Heywood, who has opposed the millionaire tax and wants it repealed. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images Since Let’s Go Washington’s founding in 2022, Heywood has spent at least $11m of his own money on 20 proposals, including a campaign to repeal Washington’s carbon market. More than 60% of voters rejected that effort in 2024, and the campaign opposing Heywood was partially funded by Gates and Ballmer.

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Kaynaklar

• The Guardian - World