Yabancı yatırımcılar Hindistan hisse senetlerinde çıkışları sürdürüyor; telekomda riskler yüksek

Kısaca

FII çıkışları Rs 23.676 crore olarak kayda geçti; toplam çıkış Rs 32.000 crore sınırını aşabilir Telekom sektörü ARPU ve yatırım baskısı altında Gelecek hafta tarife ve regülasyon tarafında belirsizlik izlenecek

Ana mesele

Yabancı yatırımcılar Hindistan BİP’lerinde net satış baskısını sürdürüyor.

Ne değişti?

Telekom tarafında çıkışlar bu yıl her ay görüldü; Ağustos ayında sektör toplam çıkışları yükseldi.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa volatilitesi artabilir; yabancı çıkışları arzdaki baskıyı güçlendirebilir.

Ne oldu?

FPIs Eylül ayında yeniden satış yapmaya başladı; NSDL verileri Eylül 19’e kadar Rs 23.676 crore çıkış gösterdi.

Neden şimdi?

Geçen iki ayın girişlerinin ardından akışlar yeniden negatife dönmüş görünüyor ve telekom sektöründe baskı artıyor.

Neden önemli?

Telekom sektörü ekonominin kilit parçalarından; yatırımcı güveni ve kazançlar etkilenebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Telekom operatörleri
• Yatırımcılar (portföy yatırımcıları)

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Telekom hisseleri baskılanırken genel piyasa volatilitesinde artış olası

Riskler

• Tarife artışı gecikmesi etkileri uzatabilir
• AGR ve yasal yükümlülükler maliyet baskısını artırabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Tarife artış kararlarının zamanlaması
• 5G yatırımlarının finansmanı ve nakit akışları
• AGR ödemeleriyle ilgili gelişmeler
• Döviz baskısı ve ithalat maliyetleri

Haberin tamamı

Foreign investors' brief return to Indian equities appears to be losing steam, with FPIs turning sellers again in September after two consecutive months of inflows.After buying Rs 11,045 crore in July and Rs 10,231 crore in August, foreign portfolio investors have resumed selling in the secondary market. NSDL data up to September 19 shows FPI outflows of Rs 23,676 crore through the exchanges.But one sector has remained firmly out of favour. Telecom has seen FII outflows every month this year.

August alone saw nearly Rs 5,000 crore leave the sector, taking total CY26 outflows to Rs 28,131 crore, according to NSDL data. Further, fortnightly data for September shows that foreign investors have sold another Rs 4,474 crore during the first two weeks.The sustained selling has also been reflected in stock performance. Bharti Airtel shares have fallen 15% since the beginning of the year, while Indus Towers is down over 16%.

Vodafone Idea, however, has been an outlier, rising over 40% in 2026.What's nagging telecom stocks?Telecom operators continue to face pressure from the heavy investments required for pan-India 5G infrastructure and spectrum renewals, which are weighing on near-term free cash flows. At the same time, actual 5G revenue generation through ARPU growth is scaling much slower than projected.Legacy issues remain another overhang.

In particular, ongoing disputes over Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues and statutory payout timelines continue to pose the potential for sudden legal and financial liabilities for telecom operators.The sector's domestic-revenue-heavy business model also leaves telecom companies exposed to dollar-denominated import costs, including equipment.

This puts pressure on net profit margins compared with export-driven sectors such as IT and Pharma, SBI Securities said in a note.Another key concern is the timing of tariff hikes. Indian telecom operators have been expected to raise tariffs to improve ARPU and returns, but the timing of the next major hike remains uncertain. Operators have already made substantial investments in 4G and 5G networks, while tariffs remain relatively low.

Any delay in tariff hikes would also push back the improvement in ARPU and cash flows.More pain ahead for Reliance Jio, Airtel, Vodafone Idea?Telecom sector revenue growth could slow to single digits this fiscal year if tariff hikes do not come through, according to market trackers.

Industry revenues grew around 10% in FY26, down from 13% in FY25.Telecom operators are potentially holding off on raising mobile tariffs amid prevailing inflationary pressures on household budgets, worsened by the Iran war. Analysts expect revenue growth to remain subdued over the next few quarters if tariff hikes are delayed further.

They currently expect a 15% rise in mobile tariffs by the fiscal second quarter, translating into a Rs 50 increase for the 28-day pack with 1.5GB of daily data.Such a hike would lift sector revenue growth to 11% year-on-year to Rs 3 lakh crore in FY27, brokerage Motilal Oswal said in a report.

Historically, we have observed that industry leaders' wireless revenue growth moderating to single digits YoY has been a precursor to the next round of tariff hikes, Motilal Oswal said.Axis Direct supports the view. It said the Indian telecom industry is seeing strong data consumption, with demand for data continuing to accelerate.

A future tariff hike would help ARPU increase meaningfully, contributing to improved operating margins and stronger free cash flow generation.The next phase of growth for telecom players is expected to come from ARPU expansion, premiumisation and monetisation of the large 4G/5G subscriber base rather than subscriber additions.With 5G rollout moving towards the monetisation phase, capex intensity should gradually moderate, supporting stronger free cash flow and balance-sheet improvement.

Meanwhile, home broadband, FWA, enterprise connectivity, cloud, data centres and digital services are emerging as additional growth engines beyond traditional mobility.Axis said Airtel and Jio are well positioned to benefit from the favourable industry structure, given their strong subscriber franchises and balance sheets.

Vodafone Idea's recovery remains a key monitorable for competitive intensity and industry pricing discipline, it added.Who will win the battle?Earlier this month, global brokerage Jefferies initiated coverage on Vodafone Idea with a 'Buy' rating and a price target of Rs 20 per share.

The target implies a 29% upside from current market levels.Jefferies sees Vodafone Idea as a high-beta turnaround opportunity, with subscriber stabilisation, operating leverage and tariff-led earnings growth expected to support the recovery.The brokerage forecasts an 11% revenue CAGR over FY26-29 as subscriber trends stabilise, while cash EBITDA is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR over FY26-31.Jefferies also considers Vodafone Idea the most leveraged beneficiary of tariff hikes.

According to the brokerage, every 10% increase in tariffs could potentially translate into around 34% upside in equity value.Its Rs 20 price target is based on a valuation of 23x EV/Cash EBITDA, in line with Vodafone Idea's five-year average.

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Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets